<!-- MHonArc v2.4.4 --> <!--X-Subject: Re: [MUD-DEV] a shrinking pool of players? --> <!--X-From-R13: X Q Znjerapr <pynjNxnatn.ah> --> <!--X-Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 19:04:46 -0800 --> <!--X-Message-Id: 25928.950670281#kanga,nu --> <!--X-Content-Type: text/plain --> <!--X-Reference: 7f.c4b192.25db6152#aol,com --> <!--X-Head-End--> <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 3.2//EN"> <html> <head> <title>MUD-Dev message, Re: [MUD-DEV] a shrinking pool of players?</title> <!-- meta name="robots" content="noindex,nofollow" --> <link rev="made" href="mailto:claw#kanga,nu"> </head> <body background="/backgrounds/paperback.gif" bgcolor="#ffffff" text="#000000" link="#0000FF" alink="#FF0000" vlink="#006000"> <font size="+4" color="#804040"> <strong><em>MUD-Dev<br>mailing list archive</em></strong> </font> <br> [ <a href="../">Other Periods</a> | <a href="../../">Other mailing lists</a> | <a href="/search.php3">Search</a> ] <br clear=all><hr> <!--X-Body-Begin--> <!--X-User-Header--> <!--X-User-Header-End--> <!--X-TopPNI--> Date: [ <a href="msg00354.html">Previous</a> | <a href="msg00356.html">Next</a> ] Thread: [ <a href="msg00353.html">Previous</a> | <a href="msg00354.html">Next</a> ] Index: [ <A HREF="author.html#00355">Author</A> | <A HREF="#00355">Date</A> | <A HREF="thread.html#00355">Thread</A> ] <!--X-TopPNI-End--> <!--X-MsgBody--> <!--X-Subject-Header-Begin--> <H1>Re: [MUD-DEV] a shrinking pool of players?</H1> <HR> <!--X-Subject-Header-End--> <!--X-Head-of-Message--> <UL> <LI><em>To</em>: <A HREF="mailto:mud-dev#kanga,nu">mud-dev#kanga,nu</A></LI> <LI><em>Subject</em>: Re: [MUD-DEV] a shrinking pool of players? </LI> <LI><em>From</em>: J C Lawrence <<A HREF="mailto:claw#kanga,nu">claw#kanga,nu</A>></LI> <LI><em>Date</em>: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 19:04:41 -0800</LI> <LI><em>Reply-To</em>: <A HREF="mailto:mud-dev#kanga,nu">mud-dev#kanga,nu</A></LI> <LI><em>Sender</em>: <A HREF="mailto:mud-dev-admin#kanga,nu">mud-dev-admin#kanga,nu</A></LI> </UL> <!--X-Head-of-Message-End--> <!--X-Head-Body-Sep-Begin--> <HR> <!--X-Head-Body-Sep-End--> <!--X-Body-of-Message--> <PRE> On Tue, 15 Feb 2000 21:11:30 EST PartyG2816 <PartyG2816#aol,com> wrote: > In a message dated 2/15/00 8:08:18 PM Central Standard Time, > MSellers#maxis,com writes: >>> it's between 10,000 and 200,000 at the extreme high end. >>> Probably around 50K. Just a gross estimate, but I've run these >>> numbers before and I think we tend to overestimate them. > Heh, EQ alone can testify to the 50k mark... There are too, mostly distinct populations under discussion here: 1) The players of (usually commercial) graphical MUDs. 2) The players of text based MUDs The two populations do overlap, but not I'd guess to any significant percentage. We also know that the population of #1 is over 100K given UO's reported player base. We don't have accurate figures for the total sum for #1 as that figure is individually jealously guarded by AC, EQ, UO etc as confidential marketting data, and the results of their several (expensive) market surveys are, similarly, proprietary data. Ergo, the numbers we get from Raph, Michael etc are, as they've said several times filtered-for-public-conumption numbers (this is no commentary on them, its a simple fact of working for a company whose corporate interests they must represent). So, we do a lot of educated guessing: As for the number of players in #2, this gets much harder as there are no direct tracking methods (eg paid accounts), and the mapping of active player characters to human numbers is quite definitely less than 1:1. Exactly what that ratio is, is unknown. My own poorly educated guess for ##1 is somewhere approaching 200K players. For #2 I suspect (sucked out of my thumb) that actual size of the player base has grown in recent years, but that the churn rate is massively higher than it used to be, and that players are, by the percentages, much more fickle than they used to be. -- Text MUD players don't play as much or for as long as they used to, and the total length of a MUD player's life is shorter (they cease playing MUDs sooner). -- They carry significantly less attachment to the games they play Translation: The pyramid is much broader and the bottom is violently churning with players coming and leaving. The pyramid used to be taller and narrower, of less total volume, but also of greater _apparent_ stability. Of course, I have no real numbers. This is just guess work and thumb sucking. -- J C Lawrence Home: claw#kanga,nu ----------(*) Other: coder#kanga,nu --=| A man is as sane as he is dangerous to his environment |=-- _______________________________________________ MUD-Dev maillist - MUD-Dev#kanga,nu <A HREF="http://www.kanga.nu/lists/listinfo/mud-dev">http://www.kanga.nu/lists/listinfo/mud-dev</A> </PRE> <!--X-Body-of-Message-End--> <!--X-MsgBody-End--> <!--X-Follow-Ups--> <HR> <!--X-Follow-Ups-End--> <!--X-References--> <UL><LI><STRONG>References</STRONG>: <UL> <LI><STRONG><A NAME="00353" HREF="msg00353.html">Re: [MUD-DEV] a shrinking pool of players?</A></STRONG> <UL><LI><EM>From:</EM> PartyG2816#aol,com</LI></UL></LI> </UL></LI></UL> <!--X-References-End--> <!--X-BotPNI--> <UL> <LI>Prev by Date: <STRONG><A HREF="msg00354.html">Re: [MUD-DEV] a shrinking pool of players?</A></STRONG> </LI> <LI>Next by Date: <STRONG><A HREF="msg00356.html">Re: [MUD-Dev] distributed objects</A></STRONG> </LI> <LI>Prev by thread: <STRONG><A HREF="msg00353.html">Re: [MUD-DEV] a shrinking pool of players?</A></STRONG> </LI> <LI>Next by thread: <STRONG><A HREF="msg00354.html">Re: [MUD-DEV] a shrinking pool of players?</A></STRONG> </LI> <LI>Index(es): <UL> <LI><A HREF="index.html#00355"><STRONG>Date</STRONG></A></LI> <LI><A HREF="thread.html#00355"><STRONG>Thread</STRONG></A></LI> </UL> </LI> </UL> <!--X-BotPNI-End--> <!--X-User-Footer--> <!--X-User-Footer-End--> <ul><li>Thread context: <BLOCKQUOTE><UL> <LI><strong><A NAME="00352" HREF="msg00352.html">RE: [MUD-DEV] a shrinking pool of players?</A></strong>, Sellers, Michael <a href="mailto:MSellers#maxis,com">MSellers#maxis,com</a>, Wed 16 Feb 2000, 02:07 GMT <UL> <LI><strong><A NAME="00379" HREF="msg00379.html">RE: [MUD-DEV] a shrinking pool of players?</A></strong>, Bryce Harrington <a href="mailto:bryce#neptune,net">bryce#neptune,net</a>, Thu 17 Feb 2000, 18:06 GMT <UL> <LI><strong><A NAME="00392" HREF="msg00392.html">RE: [MUD-DEV] a shrinking pool of players?</A></strong>, Travis S. Casey <a href="mailto:efindel#io,com">efindel#io,com</a>, Thu 17 Feb 2000, 20:47 GMT </LI> </UL> </LI> </UL> <UL> <li><Possible follow-up(s)><br> <LI><strong><A NAME="00353" HREF="msg00353.html">Re: [MUD-DEV] a shrinking pool of players?</A></strong>, PartyG2816 <a href="mailto:PartyG2816#aol,com">PartyG2816#aol,com</a>, Wed 16 Feb 2000, 02:13 GMT <UL> <LI><strong><A NAME="00355" HREF="msg00355.html">Re: [MUD-DEV] a shrinking pool of players?</A></strong>, J C Lawrence <a href="mailto:claw#kanga,nu">claw#kanga,nu</a>, Wed 16 Feb 2000, 03:04 GMT </LI> </UL> </LI> <LI><strong><A NAME="00354" HREF="msg00354.html">Re: [MUD-DEV] a shrinking pool of players?</A></strong>, PartyG2816 <a href="mailto:PartyG2816#aol,com">PartyG2816#aol,com</a>, Wed 16 Feb 2000, 02:35 GMT <UL> <LI><strong><A NAME="00360" HREF="msg00360.html">Re: [MUD-DEV] a shrinking pool of players?</A></strong>, Ryan P. <a href="mailto:ixiterra#earthlink,net">ixiterra#earthlink,net</a>, Wed 16 Feb 2000, 05:34 GMT <UL> <LI><strong><A NAME="00362" HREF="msg00362.html">Re: [MUD-DEV] a shrinking pool of players?</A></strong>, J C Lawrence <a href="mailto:claw#kanga,nu">claw#kanga,nu</a>, Wed 16 Feb 2000, 06:48 GMT </LI> <LI><strong><A NAME="00365" HREF="msg00365.html">Re: [MUD-DEV] a shrinking pool of players?</A></strong>, Matthew Mihaly <a href="mailto:diablo#best,com">diablo#best,com</a>, Wed 16 Feb 2000, 17:29 GMT </LI> </UL> </LI> </UL> </LI> </UL> </LI> </UL></BLOCKQUOTE> </ul> <hr> <center> [ <a href="../">Other Periods</a> | <a href="../../">Other mailing lists</a> | <a href="/search.php3">Search</a> ] </center> <hr> </body> </html>